Dated: February 9 2024

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"A clear pattern is emerging and it's all about the Interest Rates!"

Despite a trend throughout most of 2023 for continually rising interest rates (from the low 6's to about 7.25%), our market was resilient, remaining stable and strong until the sudden rate shock of November when borrowing costs jumped to 7.75% and the Index dropped 3.45% in 30 days.​

Clearly this is where our local market became interest rate sensitive.

Since that late November spike, rates fell quickly to 7% in December and into the mid 6's today and the correlation with my Index could not be more clear.  Expectations are the next rate movements will be downward and with our continued low inventory environment my expectations are that this can only lead to a more competitive market for Buyers and a more lucrative one for Sellers.  

The Franklin House Price Index* sits at 207.94 as of January 31st 2024 - it offers statistical proof of the activity we're seeing in the Franklin real estate market today.  Notable numbers/highlights include:

  • An Appreciation rate of 0.08% over the last Month.
  • A Depreciation rate of -1.52% over the last 3 months.
  • An Appreciation rate of 8.43% year over year.

The index chart (above) below makes interesting reading - prices moved up steadily starting February 2023 despite the slow rise of interest rates.  You can see at each "mini peak" of interest rates there was a 30 day lag of prices slipping.  The November peak was the most obvious as was the index decrease that followed 30 days later!

Now... extrapolating that information forwards..... it seems interest rates will be coming down and this suggests a move up in prices again, though the high point seen in July 2023 would seem to be a market inflection point.

What I'd expect to see is another year where we return a little bit closer to the established market patterns that were in place pre-Covid.  Just as the February weather shows signs of breaking into Spring,  Buyers shake off their winter malaise and the hunt is on top get a house under contract before the end of the school year. 

Again - with our limited inventory this might well make for a price spike by late May.  Good luck out there -  I think it's going to get competitive and once again I'll be employing my top tactics to make sure my client's offer is the one that get's accepted in a multiple offer siutation.

I'm here to assist you with your Franklin, TN home sale or purchase and always happy to offer guidance.

(Your Franklin, TN Realtor®)

* I designed the Franklin House Price Index specific to our home town and our real estate values.  The index base value (100) was Jan 1 2016 and it has been recalculated twice a month thereafter.  This is my own work product and you do not have permission to share or reproduce it without my written permission.  Want the Index delivered to you twice a month? Text, INDEX to 615 913-4293 or email Index@SimonHartland.com  - I respect your Inbox - by subscribing you will receive no more than 2 texts or emails from me a month (unless you request further real estate assistance or information).

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Simon Hartland

I'm not *just* representing Buyers & Sellers because today's real estate market requires a lot more than hand holding and unlocking doors! You can expect me to crawl in spaces others won't go, use val....

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